Beef prices in the United States have surged to historic levels, turning a common grocery item into a political crisis. Donald Trump, who once claimed inflation was “dead,” now faces growing criticism as rising beef costs threaten his promise to make groceries more affordable. This week, he urged ranchers on social media to lower cattle prices. But his call — and his administration’s other proposals — have sparked outrage among ranchers, who warn these measures could harm small producers while doing little to reduce costs for consumers.
America’s cattle industry in decline
The US cattle industry has been shrinking for decades. Domestic supply has fallen while demand remains strong, sending prices higher. The national cattle herd now stands at its lowest level in nearly 75 years. Since 2017, the country has lost over 150,000 cattle ranches — roughly 17% — according to the Agriculture Department.
Ranchers say their livelihoods are being squeezed by a few powerful meat processors that dominate the market. Rising costs for feed, fertiliser, and equipment add pressure, while years of drought have forced many to reduce their herds.
In Illinois, rancher Christian Lovell said pastures that were once lush are now dry and barren. “You put all these together and you have a recipe for a really broken market,” said Lovell, who works with the advocacy group Farm Action.
Beef prices climb faster than inflation
Beef prices have outpaced general food inflation. Ground beef rose 12.9% in the past year, while steak prices jumped 16.6%, according to federal data. A pound of ground chuck now costs $6.33, up from $5.58 last year. In comparison, overall food inflation stands at 3.1%.
“The cattle herd has been shrinking for years, yet Americans still want that beef,” said Brenda Boetel, an agricultural economist at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.
Derrell Peel, a professor at Oklahoma State University, predicts high prices will persist until at least the end of the decade. “Rebuilding herds takes years,” he said, noting the administration has few short-term tools to lower prices.
Import proposal sparks outrage
The Agriculture Department announced plans this week to boost domestic beef production by opening more grazing land and supporting smaller meat processors. But Trump’s proposal to import more beef from Argentina — potentially quadrupling purchases — has drawn criticism from ranchers.
Eight House Republicans sent a letter to the White House warning that increased imports could devastate domestic producers. Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, normally a Trump ally, said the plan “creates chaos for producers while doing nothing to lower grocery prices.”
Trump defended the plan, citing tariffs that limit imports from Brazil. “They have to get their prices down,” he wrote. “The consumer is a very big factor in my thinking.” But his explanation failed to calm ranchers.
Justin Tupper, president of the US Cattlemen’s Association, said the proposal benefits only major meat processors. “I don’t see that lowering prices here at all,” he said.
Market consolidation fuels the crisis
Experts say the real problem is the dominance of four companies — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — which control over 80% of beef processing in the US.
“These are consolidated markets gouging ranchers and gouging consumers,” said Austin Frerick, an antitrust and agricultural policy expert at Yale University.
The companies face multiple lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s alleging they colluded to inflate prices. Earlier this year, Trump repealed a Biden-era order aimed at limiting corporate concentration in food markets. Despite this, his administration has begun new investigations into competition in agriculture.
Ranchers warn of a bleak future
In Kansas, rancher Mike Callicrate survives by selling beef directly to consumers, cutting out middlemen. But most ranchers cannot afford that approach. Many have already left the industry and see little incentive to return.
“We’re not going to rebuild this cow herd — not until we address market concentration,” Callicrate said. He supports opening more grazing land but warned, “Without a fair market, you’re a fool to get into the cattle business.”
Bill Bullard, head of trade group R-CALF USA, closed his 300-cow ranch in South Dakota in 1985 as consolidation began. He said ranchers have only recently received better prices because tight supply forced processors to pay more.
Still, he said imports and corporate control continue to dominate. “Trump is focused on the symptoms, not the problems,” Bullard said.
With beef prices climbing and family ranches disappearing, Trump faces a key test: can he lower grocery costs without alienating the producers at the heart of America’s beef industry?
