Economic Clashes Take Center Stage
Rising economic tensions between major powers, including sanctions and tariffs, are now considered the top threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. Released just days before the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, the report draws on the views of more than 1,300 experts and leaders from business, government, academia, and civil society.
The findings place geoeconomic confrontation above other major concerns, including misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and armed conflict. Half of those surveyed expect the world to face turbulent conditions over the next two years, up sharply from 36% last year. Looking further ahead, most respondents predict prolonged global instability in the coming decade.
Short-Term Economic Risks on the Rise
Geoeconomic confrontation was ranked both the most likely and most severe trigger for a global crisis in 2026, with 18% of respondents flagging it as the top immediate concern. Conflicts between states, trade restrictions, and tariffs threaten supply chains, financial stability, and the international cooperation needed to respond to crises.
The report highlights how US trade policy, particularly the use of tariffs, has disrupted global commerce and strained budgets worldwide. Broader economic risks—including potential downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and asset bubbles—also climbed in the rankings, signaling a higher likelihood of market volatility in the near term. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents anticipate a multipolar or fragmented geopolitical order over the next decade.
Technology, Society, and Climate Risks Loom Large
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation rank as the second-biggest short-term risk, with cyber insecurity also rising in importance. Concerns about artificial intelligence are growing fastest in the long-term outlook, reflecting fears over its societal, security, and labor impacts. Societal polarisation and inequality remain pressing threats, with inequality identified as the most interconnected risk for the second consecutive year.
Environmental issues, while temporarily lower in the near-term ranking, dominate the long-term outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are seen as the most severe risks over the next decade, with three-quarters of respondents expecting a turbulent environmental future.
Saadia Zahidi, WEF Managing Director, emphasized the need for cooperation: “The challenges highlighted in this report — from geopolitical shocks to climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks — underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
