Precious metals have dominated markets in 2025, propelled by geopolitical tensions, expectations of looser monetary policy, and fragile global economic stability. Gold prices reached record highs, climbing as much as $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce — an annual increase of roughly 55–70%, marking one of the strongest rallies in decades. Silver, often seen as the “lesser metal,” outpaced gold in percentage terms, surging 130–140% and hitting record levels near $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025.
Once overshadowed by modern financial assets like currency, bonds, and real estate, precious metals staged a powerful comeback amid a year defined by tariff retaliation, central banks reducing dollar exposure, and persistent political uncertainty. This week alone, gold rose 2.4% and silver jumped 3.4% as tensions flared between the US and Venezuela, particularly after reports that the US Navy attempted to seize a third oil tanker linked to the South American country.
While gold prices are not directly tied to Venezuela, the standoff signals broader market risks. Political and security crises like this illuminate overlapping threats, including energy supply disruptions, sanctions escalation, and heightened great-power tensions. Gold and silver appeal to investors precisely because they are independent of any single government, do not rely on corporate earnings, carry no default risk, and are difficult to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Early Year Tariffs Boost Safe-Haven Demand
Gold began the year elevated, reflecting uncertainty over inflation, interest rates, and spillovers from Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In March, prices surged above $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time in 2025 as fears mounted over new and expanding US tariffs under President Donald Trump, particularly on steel, aluminium, and potentially broader trade measures. Markets interpreted the tariffs as a sign of an escalating trade war and higher inflation risk, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven. Silver’s initial reaction remained muted.
April–June: Middle East Tensions Strengthen Rally
Trump announced the Liberation Day tariffs on 2 April, pushing spot gold above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce amid fears of a widening trade conflict. Gold climbed steadily through spring and early summer, reaching record peaks of $3,354 (€2,842) as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, particularly between Iran and Israel. In late June, US Air Force and Navy strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran further bolstered demand for safe-haven metals.
July–September: Fed Disputes and Tariff Rollouts Maintain Momentum
A public standoff between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates reinforced gold’s mid-year gains. Trump repeatedly criticized Powell for keeping rates high and pressed for cuts that Powell refused, fueling speculation over potential Fed leadership changes. Spot gold climbed above $3,400 (€2,883) per ounce during the summer, supported by persistent uncertainty over global trade policy. On 11 July, Trump announced a sweeping tariff package, largely enforced from 1 August after earlier delays, coinciding with central banks increasing gold holdings for reserve diversification. Silver maintained its strong performance, reaching $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold Crosses $4,000 Amid Trade, Policy, and Shutdown Fears
Gold surpassed the $4,000 (€3,392) mark in early October, driven by safe-haven demand as markets weighed expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts against geopolitical and policy uncertainty. By 13 October, gold exceeded $4,133 (€3,504) amid ongoing US–China trade tensions. Although optimism over trade talks briefly pulled prices below $4,000, the broader upward trajectory continued. Investors also monitored a looming US government shutdown and ongoing criticism of the Fed from the Trump administration. By late November, gold posted its fourth consecutive monthly gain, trading around $4,210 (€3,567), while silver hit a record near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Historic Records Amid Venezuela Tensions
Late December saw the most dramatic price action. Gold reached above $4,490 per troy ounce, and silver approached $70 per ounce as investors rushed into safe havens following reports of US military activity and attempts to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could reduce real yields and continue supporting bullion prices, compounded by a weakening US dollar.
